The superyacht known as the Bayesian had a crew of 10 people and 12 passengers.

这艘名为贝叶斯号超级游艇上有 10 名船员和 12 名乘客。

We use a Bayesian statistical model to simulate the most likely " true" support for a candidate on each day, taking into account differences in methodology and the partisan tilt of individual polling firms.

我们使用贝叶斯统计模型来模拟每天对候选人最有可能“实际”支持，时考虑到方法论差异和各个民调公司党派倾向。

You'll learn cutting edge mathematics like information theory, Bayesian networks, and causal inference without calculations getting in the way.

你将学习前沿数学，如信息论、贝叶斯网络和因果推理，而无需计算。

Which takes us to the other forgotten terms in Bayesian inference.

这就把我们带到了贝叶斯推理中其被遗忘术语。

It's the same formula that you use for Bayesian integration and stuff like that.

这是你用于贝叶斯积分等东西公式。

Yeah, I actually like framing it as a Bayesian problem.

是，我其实喜欢把它看作个贝叶斯问题。

The Bayesian Award goes to... Wait, wait, wait.

贝叶斯奖颁给......等等，等等，等等。

So what did this sophisticated Bayesian causal modeling spit out?

那么，这种复杂贝叶斯因果模型得出了什么结果呢？

ANDY COOPER: If you work out the number of possible combinations of the components in the experiment, it's something like 98 million, so the robot uses an optimisation algorithm using a method called Bayesian optimisation to navigate that chemical space.

ANDY COOPER：如果你计算出实验中成分可能组合数量，大约有 9800 万种， 因此机器人使用种优化算法， 使用种称为贝叶斯优化方法来导航该化学空间。

The last probability that Bayesian knowledge tracing calculates is the probability that the student started off the problem not knowing how to do the step, but learned how to do it as a result of working through the problem.

贝叶斯知识追踪计算最后个概率是学生最初不知道如何完成这步骤，但在解决问题过程中学会了如何完成概率。

The basis of some of the cutting edge research, cutting edge theorization around what is the placebo effect, there's something called Bayesian brain prediction coding, and it's about processing of sensations.

些前沿研究和理论探讨 placebo 效应本质，其中涉及种被称为“贝叶斯大脑预测编码”理论，它主要关注感觉处理机制。

The odds framing also makes things really  nice if you want to do multiple different Bayesian updates based on multiple pieces of  evidence.

概率框架也使得基于多条证据进行多次贝叶斯更新变得非常方便。

A common technique for figuring this out is Bayesian knowledge tracing.

贝叶斯知识追踪常用来解决这个问题。

Let's come back next time, go through this, try to discuss what a classicist does, what the classical sort of key value analysis are, what you get out of it versus what the Bayesian is giving you.

下次让我们回来， 通过这个，试着讨论古典主义者是做什么，经典键值分析是什么，你从中得到了什么， 以及贝叶斯给你什么。

I have to do Bayesian updating on this distribution, I have to get expectation and so on.

我需要对这个分布进行贝叶斯更新，计算期望值等等。

Let's think in Bayesian terms, right?

让我们用贝叶斯思维来思考，对吧？

You use Bayesian reasoning to update.

你使用贝叶斯推理来进行更新。

So adding some sort of Bayesian reasoning.

因此，加入某种贝叶斯推理。

So from a Bayesian perspective, when that person actually sent the money back, which they would have an 80% chance of doing, and if I were to ask you again, what percentage of people give back, you might update your perception.

因此，从贝叶斯角度来看，当那个人确实把钱退回来时——们有80%概率会这么做——如果我再问你次，有多少人会退钱，你可能会调整你看法。

In our example before taking the test a  patient's chances of having cancer were 1 in 100. In Bayesian terms we call this the " prior  probability" .

在我们之前例子中，在进行测试之前，患者患癌症概率是百分之。用贝叶斯术语来说，我们称这个概率为“先验概率”。