Throughout history, economies have expanded and contracted. It's called the business cycle.

纵观历史，各经济体都在扩张和收缩。这叫做经济周期。

This process of booms and busts is called the business cycle.

这种繁荣、萧条的过程被称为经济周期。

Back to the same old window: ups and downs of the business cycle.

经济周期起伏不定。

Over the business cycle, stockmarket returns are also like Mr O'Rourke's one-person birthday party.

在商业周期中，股市收益也像是奥罗一个人的日聚会。

Instead it has barely budged across the latest business cycle.

然而, 当年通胀率与现今相差无几, 似乎是一个循环。

That would make the current rate setting this business cycle's peak.

倘若真的陷入经济衰退，当前利率就将成为本轮经济周期的峰值。

A recession is typically defined as two negative quarters of economic growth and is part of the normal business cycle.

经济衰退通常被定义为经济在个季度都呈负增长，它是正常的商业周期的一部分。

But this would be an odd conclusion to draw from economic growth that, while robust, has presumably not escaped the business cycle entirely, as recent disappointing consumer-confidence and housing data demonstrate.

但从经济形势中得出这一结论很奇怪，因为虽然经济增长强劲，但大概率并未完全逃脱商业周期的影响，最近令人失望的消费者信心和房地产数据就这一点。

Its dominance was eroded by the ideas of Friedman himself, who linked variations in the business cycle to growth (or decline) in the money supply.

它的支配地位逐渐被将商业周期的变化与货币供应的涨跌联系起来的弗里德曼自己的思想所蚕食。

A recession is typically defined as two negative quarters of economic growth and as part of the normal business cycle.

经济衰退通常被定义为个季度的经济负增长，是正常商业周期的一部分。

Few Americans attribute this solely to such obvious causes as a devalued dollar or the turning of the business cycle.

很少有美国人将此完全归因于美元贬值或商业周期的转变等显原因。

But he doesn't want to see the bust part of the business cycle happen again.

但他不想看到商业周期的萧条部分再次发。

Perhaps the business cycle is now on the cusp of turning.

或许，商业周期正处在转折的边缘。

Still, the strangest business cycle in living memory is not over yet.

尽管如此，人们记忆中最奇怪的商业周期还没有结束。

So we're at a particular moment in the business cycle, I think.

所以我认为我们正处于商业周期的特定时刻。

Two subsequent generations of economists were absorbed in the task of assimilating the implications of price theory and applying it to various fields of market analysis, such as factor pricing, money, business cycle analysis, and international trade.

接下来的代经济学家致力于吸收价格理论的内涵，并将其应用于市场分析的各个领域，如要素定价、货币、商业周期分析以及国际贸易。

It is upon the fact that fluctuations tend to wear themselves out before proceeding to extremes and eventually to reverse themselves, that the theory of business cycles having a regular phase has been founded.

正是基于这样一个事实，即波动在走向极端之前往往会自行耗尽并最终自行逆转，因此商业周期具有规律阶段的理论已经成立。

After the financial crisis, Mr Leamer followed up with a paper entitled " Housing really is the business cycle" , in case readers had failed to get the message.

金融危机之后，利默尔接着发一篇题为“住房确实是商业周期”的论文，以防读者未能理解这一信息。

The choice of 2007 as pivot for these comparisons is in line with that year being the peak of the long business cycle starting in 1991.

选择2007年作为比较的基准年份，是因为该年是自1991年开始的长商业周期的高峰。自那以后，尚未出现另一个长周期的高峰。

It's not sentiment, it's not multiple re-rating, it's not business cycles, or even high rates of capital efficiency that can create the highest long-term value.

这不是情感因素， 不是多次估值提升，也不是商业周期， 甚至不是资本效率的高水平， 而能创造最高长期价值。