The bear case rests on patience, a Persian restoration and a Permian boom.

的理由在于耐心，波斯的恢复和二叠纪的繁荣。

To traders this looks a bit like a put option, a basic hedging tool that sets a price floor for investments.

对于交易员来说，这起来有点像期权，这是一种为投资设定价格下限的基本对冲工具。

In more analytical, if less humorous, terms, another way of framing this shift is to ask whether the Fed put has become a Fed call.

如果正经一点，从更具分析性的角度来，另一种描述这种转变的方式是：问一问美联储的期权是否已经变为美联储涨期权。

In a market crash that impairs the financial system, the Fed put would come back into focus.

如果损害金融体系的市场崩盘爆发，美联储期权将重新成为焦点。

The concept of a Fed put dates back to the era of Alan Greenspan, a former chairman of the central bank.

美联储期权的概念可以追溯到美联储前主席艾伦·格林斯潘的时代。

Beyond Christmas, bears look likely to gain a durable advantage.

圣诞季过后，的一方似乎有望获得持久的优势。

We have set up a bearish position, we expect to see the market fall.

我们已经建立头寸，我们预计市场会下。

So I am long Twitter and short Tesla.

所以我涨推特，特斯拉。

What's the calculation of the put call price?

期权价格的计算是怎样的？

At the same time, she says it now has a bearish trading cycle.

同时，她说现在它有一个的交易周期。

Right. So let's just say that they play out the puts he gets on IR.

正确的。所以我们只能说他们执行他在 IR 上得到的期权。

Quite frankly, one of the most interesting trades in the last couple of weeks has been to sell puts, you know, not to necessarily increase, but, you know, the best time to sell insurance is after a hurricane.

坦白说，过去几周最有趣的策略之一就是卖出期权，这并非为必然增加收益，而是因为，你知道，卖保险的最佳时机往往是在飓风过后。

I also think that the consumer is still, even though the narrative and what they're talking about on a forward basis is fairly pessimistic and it's reflecting of that bearish sentiment.

我也认为消费者依然保持消费力，尽管当前的舆论和他们对未来的讨论相当悲观， 这种情绪也反映市场的态度。

These are some of my favorite conversations because once a quarter, we each bring a stock to the group, and together we explore both the bull and the bear cases.

这些都是我最喜欢的一些对话，因为每季度我们每个都会带来一只股票，大家一起探讨它的涨和理由。

Whilst liquidity-preference due to the speculative-motive corresponds to what in my Treatise on Money I called 'the state of bearishness', it is by no means the same thing.

虽然由于投机动机而导致的流动性偏好与我在货币论文中所说的“状态”相对应，但这绝不是一回事。

Vanguard is an investment manager with a financial interest in getting people into the market, so their bearish outlook would not have been made without rigorous analysis.

先锋投资管理公司有经利益促使们进入市场，所以他们的观点不会是在没有严谨分析的情况下提出的。

And then separately, and I think I posted a reply to this comment, but in 2021, as Tesla started going up, I actually started selling puts.

此外，我想我曾回复过这条评论，但在2021年， 随着特斯拉股价开始上涨，我实际上开始卖出期权。 这一策略让我收获颇丰。

That's when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average and, as its name implies, it's bearish.

当50日移动平均线破200日移动平均线时，就像它的名字所暗示的那样， 这是一个信号。

The Trump put, do you think there's any sort of impulse to soothe financial markets still within the administration?

特朗普的“期权”，你认为现任政府中是否仍存在安抚金融市场的冲动？

So and still the colors skew to the upside, meaning you can sell a call and buy a put.

所以颜色仍然偏向上涨，这意味着你可以卖出涨期权并买入期权。