The superyacht known as the Bayesian had a crew of 10 people and 12 passengers.

这艘名为号的超级游艇上有 10 名船员和 12 名乘客。

We use a Bayesian statistical model to simulate the most likely " true" support for a candidate on each day, taking into account differences in methodology and the partisan tilt of individual polling firms.

我们使用统计模型来模拟每天对候选人最有可能的“实际”支持，同时考虑到方法论的差异和各民调公司的党派倾向。

You'll learn cutting edge mathematics like information theory, Bayesian networks, and causal inference without calculations getting in the way.

你将学习前沿数学，如信息论、络和因果推理，而无需计算。

Which takes us to the other forgotten terms in Bayesian inference.

这就把我们带到了推理中其被遗忘的术语。

It's the same formula that you use for Bayesian integration and stuff like that.

这是你用于积分等东西的同公式。

Yeah, I actually like framing it as a Bayesian problem.

是的，我其实喜欢把它看作问题。

The Bayesian Award goes to... Wait, wait, wait.

奖颁给......等等，等等，等等。

So what did this sophisticated Bayesian causal modeling spit out?

那么，这种复杂的因果模型得出了什么结果呢？

ANDY COOPER: If you work out the number of possible combinations of the components in the experiment, it's something like 98 million, so the robot uses an optimisation algorithm using a method called Bayesian optimisation to navigate that chemical space.

ANDY COOPER：如果你计算出实验中成分的可能组合数量，大约有 9800 万种， 因此机器人使用种优化算法， 使用种称为优化的方法来导航该化学空间。

The last probability that Bayesian knowledge tracing calculates is the probability that the student started off the problem not knowing how to do the step, but learned how to do it as a result of working through the problem.

知识追踪计算的最后概率是学生最初不知道如何完成这步骤，但在解决问题的过程中学会了如何完成的概率。

The basis of some of the cutting edge research, cutting edge theorization around what is the placebo effect, there's something called Bayesian brain prediction coding, and it's about processing of sensations.

些前沿研究和理论探讨 placebo 效应的本质，其中涉及种被称为“大脑预测编码”的理论，它主要关注感觉的处理机制。

The odds framing also makes things really  nice if you want to do multiple different Bayesian updates based on multiple pieces of  evidence.

概率框架也使得基于多条证据进行多次更新变得非常方便。

A common technique for figuring this out is Bayesian knowledge tracing.

知识追踪常用来解决这问题。

Let's come back next time, go through this, try to discuss what a classicist does, what the classical sort of key value analysis are, what you get out of it versus what the Bayesian is giving you.

下次让我们回来， 通过这，试着讨论古典主义者是做什么的，经典的键值分析是什么，你从中得到了什么， 以及给你什么。

I have to do Bayesian updating on this distribution, I have to get expectation and so on.

我需要对这分布进行更新，计算期望值等等。

Let's think in Bayesian terms, right?

让我们用思维来思考，对吧？

You use Bayesian reasoning to update.

你使用推理来进行更新。

So adding some sort of Bayesian reasoning.

因此，加入某种推理。

So from a Bayesian perspective, when that person actually sent the money back, which they would have an 80% chance of doing, and if I were to ask you again, what percentage of people give back, you might update your perception.

因此，从的角度来看，当那人确实把钱退回来时——们有80%的概率会这么做——如果我再问你次，有多少人会退钱，你可能会调整你的看法。

In our example before taking the test a  patient's chances of having cancer were 1 in 100. In Bayesian terms we call this the " prior  probability" .

在我们之前的例子中，在进行测试之前，患者患癌症的概率是百分之。用术语来说，我们称这概率为“先验概率”。