This is the most fundamental thinking of futurology.

这是未来学最根本的思维。

During his speech, he argued that there is a yet-to-be-included discipline in basic education - futurology - which should be incorporated into the framework of science popularization and science fiction education.

在演讲中，他认为基础教育中有一门尚未纳入的学科——未来学，应该纳入科普和科幻教育的框架。

The thing is, what you've just said, though, is kind of an argument against futurology.

问题是，你刚才说的那，实际上有点像是反对未来学的论点。

OK, thank you, Joseph Syracuse, a professor of global futures at Curtin University in Australia.

好的，感谢乔瑟夫·锡拉库扎，澳大利亚科廷大学全球未来学教。

So futurism in some sense is a study of timing, trying to understand how the world will evolve, and when will the capacity for certain ideas emerge.

， 未来学在种意义上是对时机的研究，试图理解世界将如何演变，以及理念的能力何时会出现。

Of course, futurology is not an exact science, but there are ways of forecasting or predicting the future in a structured manner.

当然， 未来学不是一门精确的科学，但是有一法可以以结构化的式预测或预测未来。

In the post-Trump era, you know, this is sort of getting into sci-fi futurology for me.

在后特朗普时代，你知道，这对我来说有点像是科幻未来学了。

I mean, that's really why I got into futurism.

我的意思是，那真的就是我投身未来学的原。

So, futurology is recognizing and assessing potential future events.

，未来学即是对潜在未来事件的识别与评估。

For more, we are joined by Joseph Siracusa, Professor of Global Futures at Curtin University in Australia.

更多内容，我们请到了澳大利亚科廷大学的全球未来学教约瑟夫·西拉库萨。

If you're a futurist or a futurologist, you're going to be using techniques that are pretty recognizable, but the way you put them together and the things you sort out

如果你是未来学家或未来学研究者，你会采用一相当为人熟知的技术，但关键在于你如何将这技术结合起来， 以及你如何筛选信息， 这决定了你是否能取得成功。

And so with Herman Kahn's popularity and then the big high-profile book publishing argument that he got in with the Club of Rome, that led to like a spate of other futurology books that were kind of popular.

，随着赫尔曼·卡恩的声名鹊起， 以及他与罗马俱乐部之间那场备受瞩目的大规模出版争论，引发了一系列其他未来学书籍的涌现， 这书籍在当时也颇受欢迎。

Yeah, it was It was funny like when you're reading about futurology and Futurologists aka futurists you you tend to want to make it like more than it actually is and

是的，这挺有意思的。就像你在阅读未来学和未来学家（又称未来主义者）相关内容时，往往会不自觉地将其夸大，赋予它比实际更多的意义。

But, happily we found that when you dig into it, even the blandest parts of Futurology are super interesting still.

但令人高兴的是， 我们发现， 深入探究后，未来学的最平淡无奇的部分依然极为引人入胜。

Yeah, and what they're doing is generating what's known as a scenario and a guy named Herman Kahn, K-A-H-N, worked with Rand in the 1950s and he's the one that kind of coined the term scenario as it applies

是的，他们所做的是生成一种被称为“情景” 的东西。 一个叫赫尔曼·卡恩（Herman Kahn，K-A-H-N）的人在20世纪50年代与兰德公司合作， 他可以说是将“情景” 这一术语引入未来学领域的人。

And futurology seeks to go beyond that.

而未来学则力求超越这一层面。

So he would have been a very, almost a father of futurology.

，他几乎可以说是未来学的奠基人之一。

Futurology has been around for a long time.

未来学已经存在很长时间了。

That has aged a little better than some other futurology predictions because it is...

这比其他一未来学预测显得更为持久，为它… … 多年来经过了修订，种程度上算是一种取巧。

No, and that's the big problem with futurology.

是的，这正是未来学的大问题所在。