时间和能源如何改变一切 How Energy and Time Change Everything

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Cut myself shaving for the 761st time. Stupid shaving, always ruining everything.

Good morning Hank, it's Tuesday. So 2,000 years ago, something like half of people died before the age of five. 1,800 years later, in 1800, the global under-five mortality rate had gone from somewhere around 50% all the way down to somewhere around 43%.

But then, it began declining dramatically. Like, by 2013, the global child mortality rate wasn't 50% or 43%, it was 3.4%. In wealthy countries, it's under 1%. How did this happen? Well, in the new annual letter from Melinda and Bill Gates, Bill argues persuasively that the key to these big changes in health and development was, and isenergy.

The whole letter is fascinating, you should read it, there's a link in the dooblydoo, but I want to highlight a few big points. So okay, there are about 1.3 billion people who don't have regular access to the kinds of energy that most of us take for granted, and that has a huge impact on their lives.

Like, without electricity, kids can't study after dark, except by candlelight, and they can't access online resources, like Wikipedia. Without tractors and energy-intensive fertilizer, people grow less food.

And without running water, it's almost impossible to sterilize health care centers so it's no surprise that the 18% of humans living without regular electricity are more likely to die of preventable diseases and malnutrition and much less likely to have access to good schools. They are also, by the way, disproportionately affected by climate change, which is especially unfair.

You know, because by and large they haven't experienced that much benefit from the fossil fuel consumption that's a big driver of climate change. For instance, the average person in Bangladesh uses 98.8% less oil than the average American.

And therein lies what I think will be the biggest question of this century: how do we get energy solutions to the 1.3 billion people who don't yet have them while also dramatically reducing carbon emissions? The answer? Lots and lots of people trying lots and lots of solutions, most of which will fail, but a few of which will hopefully succeed spectacularly.

Otherwise, we're in big trouble. So Hank, back in 1800 you probably would have been one of the 43% of people who didn't live to age 5; you had a bunch of serious infections as a kid.

This would have been bad news for you, obviously, but it also would have been somewhat bad news for the rest of us, because you've gone on to do some cool stuff. Companies you've started employ a lot of people, you've helped me and many others understand important scientific concepts, you invented 2D-GLASSES which allow people to see 3D movies in a crisp two dimensions, et cetera.

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