为什么新兴市场的股票值得买入(3)

From early 2011 to the start of 2016, equities tumbled 40%, measured in dollars. For U. S. investors, returns comprise two moving parts:

the trajectory of stock prices in local currencies and the exchange rate measuring the dollars the Chinese yuan or Brazilian real buys. A drop in exchange rates helped fuel the half-decade decline,

a reversal in their currencies' fortunes fueled the 85% explosion starting in 2016, and another currency drop accounted for around one-third of the 20%-plus market decline from the heights in January.

Emerging-market bulls rate the sectors risks to be greatly exaggerated. For a disastrous spiral to take hold, a nation must be battling three negatives:

huge foreign (usually dollar) debt, a dearth of foreign reserves, and a trade deficit. In fact, only three countries face the full trio of headwinds: Argentina, Turkey, and Indonesia.

According to an analysis by Research Affiliates, all three carry heavy dollar debt, and Argentina and Turkey are grappling with full-on crises. This year it took a $50 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund to arrest the collapse in the Argentine peso,

and the country's central bank has hiked lending rates to 65%. Turkey's economy isn't in free fall, but it faces high inflation and a big balance of payment deficits.

Relatively strong economic growth has enabled Indonesia to stabilize the rupiah by hiking rates to 5.75%. Brazil and South Africa also merit concerns, if not as severe as the other three.

They have medium-size dollar debt loads and carry trade deficits that force them to borrow dollars. "They're both flashing yellow," says Chris Brightman, chief investment officer for Research Affiliates.

"But they also have large foreign reserves. And Brazil is finally emerging from a deep recession, while South Africa is lowering rates to restart growth."